Contrary to what most people thought would occur, Russia decided to expand it’s control of Ukrainian territory with a full blown military invasion exactly fourteen days prior to this being published. To those who have studied Russia’s geopolitical aims for more than five minutes, this was consider a likely outcome after the repeated escalation and de-escalation of Russian military units along the Ukrainian border for the last several years. So far, the conflict has been full of surprises that have shocked amateurs and professionals alike.

I would argue the greatest surprise so far has been Russia’s inability to sustain the fight logically. While it was understood prior to the commencement of open hostilities that the Table of Organization and Equipment (TO&E) for the Russian units arrayed along the Ukrainian border lacked sustained logistical support, it’s almost as if there was no method of follow on resupply established prior the D-Day. Within about forty-eight hours of the first cruise missile strikes against the Ukrainian SAM network, videos were surfacing of Russian armored vehicles abandoned without fuel. Since then these reports have become more numerous, to the extent that the Russians have resorted to disguising their fuel trucks in order to get them to the front without attracting the attention of roaming Ukrainian drones and SOF units.

Another huge surprise was the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority against inferior Ukrainian numbers and technology at the outset of the war. The number of Russian helicopters and tactical aircraft that have been shot down has been steadily increasing as has the deployment of Man Portable Air Defense (MANPAD) systems donated by NATO countries. The question of whether or not NATO countries will donate legacy Soviet era aircraft like the Mig-29 is still up in the air, though the U.S. government has voiced it’s support for such actions, the actual logistics of those aircraft being sent to Ukraine along with what will replace those aircraft in NATO inventories has yet to be seen. That said, this conflict has proven that lower level rotary aviation can be mitigated by cheap MANPADs, and these same system can threaten tactical aircraft at lower levels in a peer on peer fight.

The Ukrainians have had eight years to modernize their military, develop and refine their strategy, and harden their population to the likelihood of war with their larger neighbor, and this has seemed to all be for their benefit. The Ukrainians stood up to the Russians and refused to capitulate, defying the Cold War power and as one of my old teacher put it, “poked a big hole in the paper tiger”. While “big” might be too enthusiastic, their leadership and the spirit of the civilian populace to resist has been nothing but inspiring. While they may still fall, the longer this fight goes on the less likely Russia is to achieve a favorable outcome.

We have seen Russian cyber operations against Ukrainian banks and the hacking of several government websites, along with attacks on Ukrainian communications, but it seems to be a far cry from the complete internet blackouts and mass jamming that the Russians seem to be capable of. There has been a lot of misinformation and influence operations conducted by Russia and Ukraine to sway public opinion not only in their own countries but amongst their allies as well, to varying degrees of success. It’s most likely, in my opinion, that these operations have had greater success inside the United States than any other external power not currently involved in the war.

I’m not going to get into the conspiracy theories that have popped up in the U.S. about what this war is really about, nor will I talk about the anti-war statements made by GWOT vets about those who call for NATO to get involved militarily. What I will say, is that some of ya’ll need a break. Life is too damn short to buy into the absolute bullshit that’s circulating on social media. You are Americans, some of the most educated people in the world, you have a responsibility to not buy into obvious bullshit that confirms your ideological bias. Seriously.