Unless you have been living under a rock for the last few months, Russia is getting squirrely in Eastern Europe again. It’s pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that this is the most precarious situation that Europe and the United States have found ourselves in since the Cuban Missile Crisis. While a Russian invasion of Ukraine does not mean that open warfare between the US/NATO and Russia, it does mean that there is a distinct possibility that Russia will continue to conduct disinfo/influence operations against those same countries.

What is disinfo/influence operations? Disinformation operations are designed to spread false or partially false information for the purpose of turning public opinion one way or another, particularly in a way that benefits the nation or group utilizing them (see Internet Research Agency). Influence Operations tend to be a little more long term in comparison to disinformation operations. They seem to be used to take fringe ideas or opinions and mainstream them, injecting them into the zeitgeist in order make a population react a certain way. For someone wanting to research this, I would recommend looking into Active Measures and Reflexive Control Theory for starters.

What will those operations look like? Much more of the same sort of thing we have dealt with for the last 6 years, the same sort of thing most American have no clue about the origins of. Disinformation operations can look a lot like accusations of stolen elections, rampant claims of pedophilia against political opponents, riots based on false narratives, and anything else that sows doubt and discord amongst Americans. Influence operations look just a little bit different. “Those” Americans are enemies. America is an imperialist country. America has an invasion at our southern border and we need to focus our attention here, not on foreign adventures. Sound familiar? We have all heard statements like these and many others for years. It’s so common on social media that it isn’t surprising to see it anymore. At first glance, it’s hard to tell who is saying this sort of shit, ignorant Americans or Russian bots.

On top of influence and disinformation campaigns, there is a significant chance we will see the sort of internet attacks that shut down websites, specifically governmental and social media websites. I would imagine these attacks could also be focused on banking institutions, making it difficult to access funds electronically. These sort of operations are not uncommon, Ukraine sees them fairly frequently, and in recent years we have seen all sorts of hacking and DDoS attacks against our own online infrastructure. There is an even higher chance of attacks against physical infrastructure as well, similar to the Colonial pipeline attack last summer. These operations will have a direct affect on American lives, and seek to both sow panic and drive public opinion in a direction that the Russians (and Chinese) desire.

I feel it is unlikely that initial open conflict in Ukraine will result in kinetic operations against the United States assets both CONUS and OCONUS, but if the US decides to move against Russian forces and territories we could easily see military strikes abroad, at a minimum. Kinetic operations are something to keep in mind, but not spend too much time stressing about. This is unlikely to occur in the short term. If you are a service member, now is a good time to get your mind right and consider the likelihood of open conflict and what that means for you. Don’t dwell on the possibilities, focus on your responsibilities and your job.